Asia-Pacific's rapid infrastructure and digital adoption narrows the gap, putting pressure on mature markets.

North America’s Revenue Share Erodes

North America’s share of global cross-border payment revenue declined from 26.1% in 2020 to 24.5% in 2024, according to aggregated industry analysis, marking a 1.6 percentage-point contraction over the four-year period. The erosion occurred even as the global cross-border payment market expanded to $212.55 billion in 2024, a figure that reflects the continued growth in international trade, e-commerce, and remittance flows (Grand View Research, 2024). Despite the relative decline, North America remains the single largest regional market when measured by absolute revenue, accounting for 27.8% of the total market in 2024 under a broader market definition that includes wholesale and retail flows (Grand View Research, 2024). The gap between the narrower 24.5% share and the broader 27.8% figure underscores definitional differences across data sets but confirms that North America’s relative position is under pressure.

Share of global revenue (%)Source: Orionmano Industries

The decline is not a function of shrinking volumes in North America. Global cross-border payment flows reached $190.1 trillion in 2023 and are projected to hit $290 trillion by 2030, with CAGR of approximately 9% (EY, 2024). Rather, the share erosion reflects faster growth in other regions—particularly Asia-Pacific—whose expanding infrastructure and digital payment ecosystems are capturing a growing proportion of new revenue.

Asia-Pacific Emerges as the Primary Challenger

Asia-Pacific has become the primary driver of North America’s relative decline. The region captured 26% of global cross-border payment revenue in 2023, a share that industry observers describe as rapidly closing in on North America’s leading position (Convera, 2024). The convergence is being propelled by three interconnected developments: accelerated investment in payment infrastructure, rising digital adoption across emerging economies, and the sheer weight of Asia-Pacific’s trade volumes.

B2B transactions remain the dominant revenue engine, accounting for approximately 80% of global cross-border payment revenue in 2023, according to Convera’s analysis. Asia-Pacific’s role as the world’s manufacturing and export hub directly benefits this segment. The region’s trade growth—driven by supply-chain diversification, intra-Asian trade agreements, and the continued expansion of Chinese and Southeast Asian export markets—generates sustained demand for cross-border B2B payments. Convera notes that "rapid developments in infrastructure and increased digital adoption" are the key growth drivers for Asia-Pacific, pointing to initiatives such as real-time payment systems in India (UPI), Thailand (PromptPay), and Singapore (PayNow), as well as bilateral payment connectivity agreements that reduce friction and cost.

The competitive dynamics are structural. Asia-Pacific benefits from a younger demographic profile, higher rates of mobile-first financial inclusion, and regulatory environments that have actively encouraged fintech innovation in payments. These factors compound: as more transactions move to digital rails, data and network effects improve, further lowering costs and increasing speed relative to traditional correspondent banking.

Structural and Competitive Pressures on North America

Within North America itself, several factors are compounding the regional share decline. The most striking data point concerns settlement speed: the share of payment services by PSPs in North America settling within one business day dropped from 99.6% in 2023 to 46.3% in 2024, according to the Financial Stability Board’s annual progress report on cross-border payment targets (FSB, 2024). While the FSB attributes part of this decline to improved transparency—the share of services providing speed information rose from 8.6% to 22.8% in the same period, meaning more services are now reporting slower speeds rather than not reporting at all—the net effect is a perception and reality of slower execution relative to leading Asian markets.

Institutional responses are underway. The U.S. Federal Reserve launched the FedNow Service to enable instant domestic payments, a foundational step that could eventually support faster cross-border settlement. SWIFT’s GPI network, which allows banks to track transfers in real time, has improved transparency, and many institutions are adopting the ISO 20022 messaging standard to enable richer data exchange (Grand View Research, 2024). However, these upgrades are incremental relative to the greenfield infrastructure buildouts occurring in parts of Asia.

Demand growth within North America itself remains robust. A 2024 survey of 1,037 midsize and large North American businesses by Datos Insights, published in partnership with Visa, found that 54% of respondents anticipate a significant increase in cross-border payment volume over the next 12–24 months, while 24% already reported a significant increase in the prior period (Visa/Datos Insights, 2024). The survey highlighted that larger midmarket organizations are expanding the number of regions and countries where they transact, creating opportunities for financial institutions that can offer speed, transparency, and automation.

The strategic imperative for North American incumbents is clear. The Visa/Datos Insights report emphasizes that partnerships between traditional financial institutions and fintechs are key to retaining market share. Banks that act as facilitators of fintech partnerships—rather than attempting to build competing capabilities from scratch—are better positioned to capture the growing cross-border business from midmarket corporate clients who increasingly demand automated, real-time, data-rich payment solutions. Failure to adapt risks accelerating share erosion as Asia-Pacific’s infrastructure maturation and digital adoption continue to pull global revenue growth eastward.

The long-term outlook confirms the trajectory. Grand View Research projects the global cross-border payment market will reach $320.73 billion by 2030, representing a CAGR of 7.1% from 2025 to 2030. North America will remain the largest single regional market in absolute terms for the foreseeable future, but its share of global revenue is likely to continue contracting as Asia-Pacific’s growth premium persists and as global trade patterns increasingly favor the region. The shift is not imminent disruption but steady, structural rebalancing—a process that rewards incumbents who modernize and punishes those who do not.