• A 4.5% CAGR over 2020–2025 driven by record non-interest income; 4.0% CAGR projected through 2030.*

Market Overview and Historical Growth

The Singapore banking segment posted total revenue of SGD 74.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% from 2020 to 2025, according to industry estimates. This trajectory places the sector comfortably within the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) Industry Transformation Map (ITM) 2025 target of 4% to 5% annual growth for 2021–2025: MAS data shows an average growth rate of 4.7% for the 2021–2024 period, confirming the sector is on track to meet the target.

The revenue expansion was underpinned by solid balance-sheet growth. Banking sector total assets grew at a 6.8% CAGR over 2021–2024 (Source 4), providing the scale necessary to support both lending and fee-based activities. This asset growth, combined with record non-interest income streams, enabled Singapore’s banks to offset the margin compression that accompanied the late-cycle rate environment. The 2025 revenue figure of SGD 74.5 billion marks a cumulative gain of approximately 25% from 2020 levels, positioning the sector as a key contributor to Singapore’s financial services output and employment targets—MAS reported average annual net job creation of 4,400 for 2021–2024, exceeding the ITM 2025 target range of 3,000–4,000.

Bank-Level Performance: UOB and OCBC

Disaggregating the headline figure reveals the structural shift occurring below the surface. Two of Singapore’s three major local banks—UOB and OCBC—together accounted for 38% of the SGD 74.5 billion market in 2025, based on their respective FY2025 earnings reports.

UOB reported total income of S$13.8 billion for FY2025, a 3% decline year-on-year, largely attributable to a 14-basis-point compression in net interest margin (NIM) to 1.89%. Net interest income (NII) fell 3% to S$9.4 billion. However, the bank’s regional franchise demonstrated resilience: gross customer loans grew 4% to S$352.2 billion. The standout performance came from net fee and commission income, which reached a record S$2.6 billion (+7%), driven by an 18% surge in wealth management fees and a 13% increase in loan-related fees.

OCBC posted a record total income of S$14.6 billion (+1% year-on-year), despite a 6% decline in NII to S$9.2 billion as NIM compressed by 29 basis points to 1.91%. Non-interest income surged 16% to S$5.5 billion, cushioning the margin drag. Net fee income climbed 22% to S$2.4 billion, led by a 34% jump in wealth fees; insurance income from Great Eastern Holdings rose 17% to S$1.1 billion. Asset quality remained strong, with an NPL ratio of 0.9% for seven consecutive quarters. Wealth management now contributes 38% of OCBC’s total income, underscoring the bank’s deliberate pivot toward fee-based, relationship-driven revenue.

%Source: Orionmano Industries

Revenue Drivers and Forecast to 2030

The 2025 performance reveals a sector that is successfully diversifying away from pure interest income. For both UOB and OCBC, non-interest income growth—particularly from wealth management—offset margin compression and supported overall revenue resilience. This shift is structural: wealth management now constitutes 38% of OCBC’s total income, while UOB’s record fee income reflects deepening client relationships across its regional footprint.

The forward revenue forecast of SGD 90.6 billion by 2030 implies a CAGR of 4.0% over 2025–2030, a modest deceleration from the 4.5% historical CAGR. This projection is consistent with the established ITM trajectory: MAS’s 4–5% annual growth target for 2021–2025 serves as a baseline, and the sector’s demonstrated ability to generate fee income through cycles supports the continuation of similar momentum.

Key drivers for the forecast period include continued expansion in regional loan books—UOB’s 4% loan growth and OCBC’s 9% constant-currency loan growth in 2025 signal ongoing demand across ASEAN—and the compounding effect of wealth management assets under management. As global interest rates normalise downward, Singapore banks’ NIMs may face further compression, but the fee-based revenue streams built over the past several years provide a growing offset. The asset quality backdrop remains supportive: OCBC’s NPL ratio of 0.9% reflects disciplined underwriting, while the broader banking sector’s total asset CAGR of 6.8% over 2021–2024 supplies the base for future revenue generation.

The revenue target of SGD 90.6 billion by 2030 is achievable under the assumption that fee income continues to outpace NII growth and that regional loan expansion holds at current rates. The sector’s transformation—from net-interest dependent to a balanced fee-and-interest model—is well underway, and the data suggests Singapore’s banks are positioned to sustain mid-single-digit revenue growth through the next cycle.